Bitmine’s 5% hard cap leaves Ether’s biggest corporate buyer weeks from the exit

The end of Bitmine’s buying removes a steady, price-insensitive source of ETH demand, but the bid has already faded to roughly a tenth of its May pace, so much of the adjustment is likely priced in. The bigger swing factor for ETH is whether spot ETF flows and broader risk appetite fill the gap left by treasury companies. A shift to selling staking rewards would add a small but persistent supply overhang. Bitmine shares now trade more on staking income and buybacks than on accumulation. --- Earlier: Bitcoin shows some buying life as risk-on flows return and push the digital currency higher Bitcoin rallies on US-Iran deal hopes amid increasingly positive reports. What's next? --- Ether’s most reliable corporate buyer is about to stop, but the market has been weaning itself off Bitmine’s bid since May, so the real test is who steps in next. Summary: Tom Lee said at Token2049 that Bitmine will not hold more than 5% of Ether’s supply, turning a target into a hard cap Bitmine held about 6.03 million ETH as of 11 October, or 4.9% of a total supply of around 122.1 million That leaves the company roughly 76,000 ETH short, with recent buying pointing to the cap being reached around mid-to-late November Weekly purchases have fallen from more than 111,000 ETH in May to around 12,500 About 5.07 million ETH is staked, and staking rewards could push holdings above 5% without new purchases Lee argues the cap ends the need to raise capital and should help Bitmine shares outperform ETH in a rally The company’s latest weekly update showed about 6.03 million ETH as of 11 October, or 4.9% of a total supply of roughly 122.1 million. That leaves it around 76,000 ETH short of the cap. At the pace of recent weeks, roughly 12,500 to 15,000 ETH a week, the target would be reached around mid-to-late November, though Bitmine holds more than $600 million in cash and marketable securities and could close the gap faster if it chose to. For more than a year, Bitmine has been one of the most consistent sources of demand for ETH, buying through a market in which the token fell about 10% over the first nine months of 2026. The bid has already shrunk sharply, however. Weekly purchases topped 111,000 ETH in May, against roughly 12,500 in the week to 11 October. Much of the effect of Bitmine stepping back may therefore already be in the price, making the end of buying more a formal full stop than a sudden loss of demand. Lee presents the cap as good news for shareholders, arguing that the company no longer needs to raise capital to buy ETH and that its shares should outperform the token in a rally. That is the company’s view rather than an established outcome, and the position was carrying an unrealised loss of around $4.5 billion near the time of the speech. Staking adds a complication. About 5.07 million of Bitmine’s ETH is staked, meaning it is locked up to help secure the Ethereum network in return for rewards paid in new ETH. Those rewards can push holdings above 5% without any purchases. Lee has said the company could sell staking income to stay under the cap, but has also said he sees little reason to sell ETH, with staking income covering dividends on its preferred shares. What to watch next: the weekly holdings updates, for the week Bitmine reports reaching 5% and stopping; whether it begins selling staking rewards, which would turn a steady buyer into a small, regular seller; and spot Ether ETF flows, to see whether other demand fills the gap. A marked slide in ETH once buying ends would suggest the treasury bid mattered more than its recent size implied, while a steady price would confirm the market had already moved on. Lee has revised his stance on the cap once already, so a strong rally could test it again.  This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.